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School enrolments down as HIV/AIDS takes its toll
Edwin Naidu. 28 March 2004. Sunday Argus. Republished courtesy of Independent Newspapers (Pty) Ltd.
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A major new study undertaken on behalf of the government has found that South Africa is in the midst of an HIV/AIDS crisis even more devastating than feared.
The study predicts there will be fewer pupils in future than earlier population forecasts. Declining fertility has already had an effect on school enrolments as HIV-positive women have more difficulty conceiving.
The average rate of increase in school enrolments between 1980 and 1985 was 3.63 percent. Between 1985 and 1990, it was 3.78 percent a year and between 1990 and 1995, 4.21 percent. However, between 1995 and 2000, the overall rate collapsed to just 0.05 percent.
"The drop in overall enrolments over this period can be attributed to declining fertility rates and to rising infant mortality, mainly as a result of HIV/AIDS," the study said.
A substantial number of secondary pupils, possibly as many as 500 000, would be living with HIV and likely to die before the age of 30, said the study.
"The impact of the epidemic is already being experienced by children as a result of the death of their parents and relatives."
As the government finally prepares to provide anti-retroviral drugs to combat the disaster, the shocking rate of infection in the public service has sparked fears that governance may be seriously affected as illness leads to deaths or absenteeism. More than 100 000 civil servants are infected with HIV/AIDS.
"How can the government be maintained and function effectively when many of its officials become ill with HIV and die of AIDS?" was one of several key concerns raised in the study by the University of Pretoria's Centre for the Study of AIDS on behalf of the department of social development, due for release this week.
Anton Lourens, general manager of the Public Servants' Association, said the study corroborated the findings of a similar survey, given more than 18 months ago to Geraldine Fraser-Moleketi, the minister of public service and administration.
"The union is of the view that the government has kept the first report a secret because it is unable to act upon it," he said.
"We are extremely worried about how HIV/AIDS is affecting our members but there is a limit to what we can do because the government, as the biggest employer in the country, has not shown a willingness to co-operate," he said.
Fazila Fayers, a member of the Health and Other Services Personnel Trade Union of South Africa, said the public service was going to be severely affected by the pandemic.
"There have been numerous reports which show clearly the impact HIV/AIDS is having on the civil service, yet the difficulty is convincing the government," she said.
The study, to be presented at a conference on Wednesday, predicts the rate of infection among managerial and supervisory staff will reach 10 percent by next year.
"If the general forecast of HIV/AIDS deaths was reliable, it might be that up to a quarter of a million public servants might die by 2012," the study said.
The South African Democratic Teachers' Union, and the National Organisation of Professional Teachers Association said HIV/AIDS was taking its toll on teachers who were forced to take sick leave.
"The number of teachers employed by the state is down, primarily because of the impact of HIV/AIDS," said Naptosa president Dave Balt.
Fraser-Moleketi was overseas and several requests to the department for comment were unsuccessful. The study began two years ago and was updated for Wednesday's conference. It predicts there will be an estimated five to seven million deaths from HIV/AIDS between 2000 and 2010. |
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