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HIV/AIDS will be Cape's biggest killer by 2009
Nazma Dreyer. 06 October 2003. Cape Times. Republished courtesy of Independent Newspapers (Pty) Ltd.
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By 2009, the number of HIV/AIDS-related deaths will exceed the combined figure for all other causes in Cape Town, assuming anti-retroviral drugs are not used to treat people who have the virus.
The disease is already the city's biggest killer of women and children under the age of five. This comes from a report compiled by a University of Cape Town actuary and commissioned by the city's health department.
According to this report, life expectancy for blacks would decrease from 55 to 40 and for coloureds from 65 to 55 because of HIV/AIDS, said Ivan Toms, the city's director of health.
There was no comprehensive model for whites because the information was collected from the public sector. "Very few white people use public hospitals," Toms said. "We do have figures from blood banks and insurance companies, but very few.
"The positive thing in the Western Cape is that we have more than 1 000 people on anti-retrovirals and by June next year we will have more than 2000. There will be a drop in the death rate and this will change projections."
Toms said he did not have in hand figures for the number of HIV infections in the city.
Another report, the city's health amenities and sport portfolio committee's study of the metropolitan area's cemetery needs, gives a slightly different forecast.
It says an actuarial model calibrated to fit the progression of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in the Western Cape and Cape Metropolitan area between 2001 and 2011 shows HIV/AIDS-related deaths could account for 42.17 percent of all deaths in the metropolitan area in 2011, compared with 12.87 percent in 2001.
But this figure is lower than the city health department's projected figures, which say by 2009 HIV/AIDS-related deaths will exceed the total number of other deaths in Cape Town.
The increase in the number of deaths is also having an impact on cemeteries, with the city having to provide space for thousands of graves.
Health Minister Manto Tshabalala-Msimang said in Phalaborwa on Saturday that the government's Partnership Against AIDS programme had raised awareness about the pandemic.
"Since the launch of the programme in 1998, the country has pulled many resources from diverse communities and social groupings to equip itself with a united response against our greatest challenge," she said at the fifth-year celebrations of the programme.
Also present were Deputy President Jacob Zuma, Limpopo premier Ngoako Ramatlhodi and Health MEC Sello Moloto.
Tshabalala-Msimang said the initial burden of providing care and support for people with HIV and AIDS had been borne primarily by the public health system. This role had since been shared by non-governmental and community organisations, the private sector and others.
In recent years, these sectors had initiated numerous HIV/AIDS programmes.
At the celebration, partners exchanged information about practices in HIV/AIDS programmes that were effective in improving the quality of life of people who were infected or affected.
Tshabalala-Msimang said it was "moving" to see that the government had "partnered" such a variety of roleplayers.
"Through the Khomanani Caring Together campaign, we are forging alliances with ... media groups and big retailers. They join other organisations, whose help and contribution are needed and appreciated." |
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