|
|
 |
Experts say AIDS infection rate unchanged
Lynne Altenroxel The Star, June 10 2002. Reprinted courtesy of Independent Newspapers (Pty) Ltd.
|
South Africa's newest HIV figures may show that the virus is spreading at a slower rate, but experts are sceptical about government claims that fewer teenagers are becoming infected.
The long-awaited statistics were finally released in Pretoria on Monday amid excitement over the Health Department's optimistic assertions.
The figures show a minor average increase - from 24,5 percent to 24,8 percent. But even this tiny percentage translates into 40 000 more South Africans being newly infected last year, with over 60 000 AIDS-related deaths.
Speaking at the official launch, Health Minister Dr Manto Tshabalala-Msimang announced: "Although we see a slight increase, statistically this increase is not significant, and we can confidently say the prevalence rate has stabilised. It is encouraging to see that HIV prevalence among teenagers has dropped for the third consecutive year."
But experts are not too sure that she is correct.
The statistics were worked out from blood tests taken among pregnant women attending government clinics in October 2001. Figures obtained for the first time ever at private clinics were not released because the department wasn't sure if they were accurate.
But the main focus at the launch was the apparent reduction among teenagers. The department claims that the HIV infection rate among under-20s has plunged from 21 percent in 1998, to 16,5 percent in 1999, to 16,1 percent in 2000, to 15,4 percent last year.
There is a problem, though, with the 1998 statistics, which many experts believe were too high.
"There was a change in the sampling methods in 1998 which, although it was more representative of the South African population, led to the 1998 figures being problematic," explained epidemiologist Dr Saadiq Kariem.
That year the official national infection rate was 22,8 percent. Epidemiologists believe the correct estimate is about 2 percent lower, which would mean that the national infection rate has not dropped at all. At best, it is climbing at a slower pace than before and could be stabilising.
Kariem said the national infection rate was "definitely levelling off", but there were still increases in some provinces.
The 1998 figures for teenagers are also believed to have been as much as five percent too high, which means that the infection rate among teenagers is also stabilising, but not dropping. Even the department's report describes the difference between this year's and last year's figures for under-20s as "not statistically significant".
Tshabalala-Msimang said on Monday that the infection rate among teenagers was dropping because of "the hard work that has been put into prevention campaigns encouraging safe sexual behaviour among the youth".
Professor Rob Dorrington, head of the AIDS committee of the Actuarial Society of South Africa, was more cautious.
"You do see a levelling-off in the prevalence among under-20s," he said, "but there's not much else you can say about it."
[A summary report of the survey is available on the right-hand side of this page.] |
| Was this article helpful to you? |
 ?0%???? ?0%
|
|
Back
|
|
|
|
